41 Comments

Hey Matthew- I appreciate your critique- as always I appreciate your voice. I do however disagree with a couple major points. First, I would not put any qualifiers on the strengthening of Russia since 2022. Russia is far stronger now, full stop. Its alliance with China is firm. Russia has also shown the West what a real industrial economy looks like- here we are in the US with empty factories, while Russia pumps out new weapons and military supplies consistently. The Russian people have grown MORE supportive of the special military operation. And honestly, put yourself in their shoes. Imagine you're Russian. For years you've lived with nuclear armed weapons on your border. For years you've been next door to a failed state with literal Nazis in government. Imagine you lived in Russia and felt the effects of Ukraine's attacks on your land. Remember when Ukraine sent drones to hit apartment complexes in Russia? (I'm not sure in which city.) Those attacks inside Russia only increased Russian support for the SMP.

Also, I don't see your prediction of increased industrial output for Europe in the realm of possibility. Russia was provoked in 2014 by the Ukraine coup and the US bet (correctly) on western European leaders' backing of NATO. The US manipulated Germany into shutting down Nordstream. That wasn't good enough for the US, so the US blew it up.

A major reason the ruling elite stoked the Ukraine conflict was to force European (and particularly German) countries to be dependent on US natural gas. Europe can't possibly industrialize more now. German factories are closing because fuel is way too expensive to warrant continuing production. While the ruling elite miscalculated the effect of sanctions on the Russian economy, they gamed western Europe very well. The wealth created by jacked up LNG prices to Europe will surely make more American billionaires. But it spells doom for European industry.

Finally, I completely disagree that NATO is stronger now as an alliance. I understand that the mainstream media probably says that nonstop, but the mainstream media ignores the existence of the people. (This is particularly annoying in the US, as most people suffer devastating economic hardship without a word of validation of their struggle from the mainstream media.)

The Europeans don't seem to be particularly thrilled with their governments. And rightly so. Their governments have thrown their own people under the bus by cowtowing to US imperialism. We've seen major protests in France and Germany. Of course our media try to describe any popular uprising as "far right" in order to poison the well of those who consider joining a resistance movement. It's kind of like "trigger words"- there are certain words and phrases that turn off liberal brains, and "far right" is at the top of the list.

The ruling elite is losing control of the narrative, and the European people are rightfully irate that their money is being sent to the most corrupt government in Europe. The American people are more tuned into foreign policy than they've been in my 43-year lifespan. There is a loud vibration humming across the working class in Europe and the US. Europeans know that NATO is destroying their social democracies. And more and more Americans understand that US foreign policy is a grift. That is very bad news for NATO.

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Feb 5Liked by Matthew Hoh

So, where is the peace ticket option--Kucinich/Hoh '24? Bernie did the small grass roots funding. Let's get the ticket going and kick in $24 for '24. What are you and Dennis waiting on!? :-)

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Feb 5Liked by Matthew Hoh

Dear Matthew - Thank you for this comprehensive and clear, albeit gloomy, assessment of the US foreign policy situation and much more. I learned a lot, especially about Turkey and Egypt. A couple of questions and one request:

-- do you think it is pointless to go ahead with the No to NATO protests this summer, given NATO's strengthened position, or can something productive still come from this: https://www.no-to-nato.org/

-- how much can world or US opinion be effected by the impacts on the global climate crisis by the Israeli genocidal assault in Gaza, the Ukraine-Russia War, and other armed conflicts?

My request: please do not use the word "defense" which has many good connotations (as you know); please use "military" or "militarized" or "war" as in, "war industry" -- a term popularized by author and military veteran Christian Sorensen. The people and the environments of the world are not being "defended" by all this warfare and preparations for war. We are being destroyed, immediately or longer-term.

Thanks again for your honesty and clarity.

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Feb 6Liked by Matthew Hoh

Thanks for this update Matt. One question: Oman can play a critical role and does host important UK bases but I have been reading that the local population there, who are definitely sympathetic to Palestine, is becoming increasingly upset by the UK presence and its support for Israel. This echoes the pressures being felt by Gulf rulers, Egypt and Jordan as the Arab street becomes ever more restless. How do you view the influence of the Arab population and Asabiyya referred to by Pepe Escobar affecting the balance of powers in that region?

https://thecradle.co/articles/how-yemens-asabiyya-is-reshaping-geopolitics

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Interesting assessments. The only thing missing is how current Dem policies will affect electoral politics the next time around.

The 2028 race is taking shape now. Team Blue has told the left to pound sand once too often, and the left is building alternatives.

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Your interview with Scott led me here. Great assessment.

Russia has secured Crimea and has 4 seaside oblasts and increased its population - if this becomes a Korea-styled situation, Russia will have won even without achieving its full objectives. Despite the dead bodies, he's reinvigorated nationalism and protected the majority of the Russian-speaking victims of the civil war.

The biggest local strategic win would be to get Odessa and link to Transnistria. That's essential to counterbalance Finland and Poland, the latter the future NATO-backed industrial region of the EU (so long as it doesn't tear itself apart). But its a big ask considering Russia would have to take Dnipro first.

A more radicalised Ukraine will be terrible for the population, especially Russian-speakers, but further dent the West's marketed morals. I expect most talented expats will not return from the EU.

War has unknown factors e.g., would NATO be as foolish as to enter Ukraine, forcing a big response from Putin.

In context, the war has been an enormous strategic win for Russia and China, their attempt to challenge the dollar and gain prestige in Africa.

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Firstly. Iran is NOT an Arabic Country. It is Persian and they speak Farsi.

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hi Matt

saw you first in interviews at legendary Andrew Nap. followed your work on the internet. the following is just to display, your work sure moves people around the globe. here is a part of a letter I sent to my Ausrian government:

...this leads me to address you, the Foreign Ministry, the Chancellor's Office, and especially our President:

How can an Austrian understand, given the humanitarian plight of the Palestinian population, that Austria still has not emancipated itself from the stance of the D-A-CH countries? Why does official Austria still refuse to recognize Palestine as a nation? You are certainly aware that 138 other UN member states have ratified recognition?

The US-aligned narrative constantly heard from politicians like Mrs. Nuland, Mr. Blinken, Mr. Kirby, Mr. Sullyvan, but especially from the Netanyahu-administration, is a profound disregard for human suffering, directly proportional to the suffering inflicted upon the population. (Allow me to invert Netanyahu's argumentation with the insanity of the 9/11 events broken down to October 7, 23.) What was responsible for the Shoah during the NS regime in Europe is now being inflicted to an even greater extent upon the people in Gaza, the West Bank, neighboring Jordan, and even directly in Israel.

I don't need to detail the reports of independent journalists, podcasters, and internationally recognized political scientists and researchers of sustainable development such as Prof. J.D. Sachs from Columbia University, Prof. John J. Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago, Prof. Tarek Masoud from the Middle East Initiative at the Kennedy School, as well as Dr. Daniele Ganser, Max Blumenthal, Cpt. Matt Hoh, Amy Goodman, Gita I. Wirjawan, Lex Fridman, Col. Douglas Macgregor, Dr. Dalal Iriqat, and many others, as you are surely familiar with these reports, research amd podcasts.

Therefore, I would like to encourage you, esteemed Foreign Ministry, Chancellor's Office, and Mr. President, as a father of three adult children and as an independent doctor and surgeon, to reconsider the stance of D-A-CH and initiate a public discourse on this matter.

As the Austrian Republic, you should take an official action to acknowledge and display that we have understood and gathered the needs, fears, immense suffering, and above all, the DAILY need for humanitarian and medical assistance for needy women, children, and men in Palestine. But especially to enable the people in Palestine to enjoy Article 1, Paragraph 1 of the UN Charter. I consider this to be essential for survival.

As you know, the trucks that bring daily food, medical supplies, and clothing to the war-torn area of Gaza stand in front of tightly closed gates! It is conceivable that the fact that Palestine is not a privileged country under the UN Charter is one of the reasons why the Netanyahu administration in the Knesset continues to refuse to open the gates protected by weapons. As can be seen in reports from Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the International Red Cross, even the Israeli civilian population is involved in obstructing the delivery of much-needed aid! All of this is incomparable to the insane attacks of Hamas, which are unquestionably condemned internationally! But what has been happening in Palestine since then is unbearable to witness through the eyes of a father and a doctor, and for sure, thais is in no means an act of self-defense!

In my opinion, the first step should be for Austria to initiate a discourse at the UN level to recognize Palestine as a nation here in the German-speaking region, and thereby logically refute the argument of the Netanyahu administration that Palestine is not a protected country under the UN Charter (and therefore fair game) to cut off water. This would be a pragmatically safer approach to prevent further suffering. Doing so should not be a question of geopolitical considerations; doing so is an act of humanity. And there will probably be no one on Earth who has all their marbles who cannot understand that!

With this, our small country can make a highly visible statement and serve as an example that we can certainly be proud of, rather than the completely unrealistic ideas of sending weapons or even troops into war zones, which unfortunately have recently been heard and read from Austrian politicians. I trust that you are also appalled by the recent ideas of some European top politicians wanting to bring war into the hinterlands of Russia! This is madness, as assessed by General Inspector Harald Kujat (ret.), and I trust that you share the same view. How about diplomacy?

Because war means: ideologues speak passionately at home while young people and their families suffer fear and death on the front lines.

As a lecturer in cosmology, astronomy, and astrophotography, I would like to quote Prof. Carl Sagan, who told us: We humans are all children of stardust. All people consist of the same elements that were once created in stars through nuclear fusion. We all belong to the human family; we are nourished by the same Earth, we are at home on the same Earth, we experience the same pain at the loss of freedom, health, or even one of our loved ones. The cry of despair, pain, or suffering sounds the same in every person, regardless of their skin color, political or religious affiliation, or ethnic background. As Dr. Daniele Ganser aptly says in his books: "We are all part of the human family."

Please do not let this email be met with a copy-paste response; embrace this idea in the spirit of humanity, anthropophilia, and simply Christian charity, which we will rightly hear a lot about in our churches this coming Easter weekend.

Let us not end as Austrians with mere rhetoric while war crimes are being committed in Gaza, as judged and condemned by the UN.

It is time that, especially in full awareness of the historical background of May 11, 1949, as promised decades ago at the UN level, we FINALLY help the people in Palestine to live their human rights. The people there want nothing more than us: freedom, peace, and for the young people there, education and a hopeful outlook on the development of their quality of life.

In conclusion, I wish for my Austrian government a commitment to a public stance for peace, for welfare, and above all, a strong plea for DIPLOMACY!

Helmut Schmidt once said: "Better to negotiate fruitlessly for 100 hours than to shoot for just one minute."

Kennedy said: "Our goal is not the victory of might, but the maintenance of rights – not peace at the expense of freedom, but both: peace and freedom here in our hemisphere and – as we hope – everywhere in the world. God willing, we will achieve this goal."

Let us not only hope that diplomacy is always the nobler good in a democracy than promoting warlike conflicts, and let us spread this valuable asset in the world. Let our people experience that you as our democratically voted government stand for these values, stand for our values, as we are one!

Please stand publicly as our federal government and representative for the protection of human life wherever it is trampled upon before our eyes by ideological, geopolitical-strategic, or even economic considerations.

For historical reasons, we Austrians must not look away again! As a democratic republic, we cannot afford that.

Best regards with gratitude,

Dr. Dietmar Hager

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dear Mr Hoh,

the following is just to display, that based upon your work, you get to move people around the globe! here is a letter I just sent to my government in Austria:

...this leads me to address you, the Foreign Ministry, the Chancellor's Office, and especially our President:

How can an Austrian understand, given the humanitarian plight of the Palestinian population, that Austria still has not emancipated itself from the stance of the D-A-CH countries? Why does official Austria still refuse to recognize Palestine as a nation? You are certainly aware that 138 other UN member states have ratified recognition?

The US-aligned narrative constantly heard from politicians like Mrs. Nuland, Mr. Blinken, Mr. Kirby, Mr. Sullyvan, but especially from the Netanyahu-administration, is a profound disregard for human suffering, directly proportional to the suffering inflicted upon the population. (Allow me to invert Netanyahu's argumentation with the insanity of the 9/11 events broken down to October 7, 23.) What was responsible for the Shoah during the NS regime in Europe is now being inflicted to an even greater extent upon the people in Gaza, the West Bank, neighboring Jordan, and even directly in Israel.

I don't need to detail the reports of independent journalists, podcasters, and internationally recognized political scientists and researchers of sustainable development such as Prof. J.D. Sachs from Columbia University, Prof. John J. Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago, Prof. Tarek Masoud from the Middle East Initiative at the Kennedy School, as well as Dr. Daniele Ganser, Max Blumenthal, Cpt. Matt Hoh, Amy Goodman, Gita I. Wirjawan, Lex Fridman, Col. Douglas Macgregor, Dr. Dalal Iriqat, and many others, as you are surely familiar with these reports, research amd podcasts.

Therefore, I would like to encourage you, esteemed Foreign Ministry, Chancellor's Office, and Mr. President, as a father of three adult children and as an independent doctor and surgeon, to reconsider the stance of D-A-CH and initiate a public discourse on this matter.

As the Austrian Republic, you should take an official action to acknowledge and display that we have understood and gathered the needs, fears, immense suffering, and above all, the DAILY need for humanitarian and medical assistance for needy women, children, and men in Palestine. But especially to enable the people in Palestine to enjoy Article 1, Paragraph 1 of the UN Charter. I consider this to be essential for survival.

As you know, the trucks that bring daily food, medical supplies, and clothing to the war-torn area of Gaza stand in front of tightly closed gates! It is conceivable that the fact that Palestine is not a privileged country under the UN Charter is one of the reasons why the Netanyahu administration in the Knesset continues to refuse to open the gates protected by weapons. As can be seen in reports from Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the International Red Cross, even the Israeli civilian population is involved in obstructing the delivery of much-needed aid! All of this is incomparable to the insane attacks of Hamas, which are unquestionably condemned internationally! But what has been happening in Palestine since then is unbearable to witness through the eyes of a father and a doctor, and for sure, thais is in no means an act of self-defense!

In my opinion, the first step should be for Austria to initiate a discourse at the UN level to recognize Palestine as a nation here in the German-speaking region, and thereby logically refute the argument of the Netanyahu administration that Palestine is not a protected country under the UN Charter (and therefore fair game) to cut off water. This would be a pragmatically safer approach to prevent further suffering. Doing so should not be a question of geopolitical considerations; doing so is an act of humanity. And there will probably be no one on Earth who has all their marbles who cannot understand that!

With this, our small country can make a highly visible statement and serve as an example that we can certainly be proud of, rather than the completely unrealistic ideas of sending weapons or even troops into war zones, which unfortunately have recently been heard and read from Austrian politicians. I trust that you are also appalled by the recent ideas of some European top politicians wanting to bring war into the hinterlands of Russia! This is madness, as assessed by General Inspector Harald Kujat (ret.), and I trust that you share the same view. How about diplomacy?

Because war means: ideologues speak passionately at home while young people and their families suffer fear and death on the front lines.

As a lecturer in cosmology, astronomy, and astrophotography, I would like to quote Prof. Carl Sagan, who told us: We humans are all children of stardust. All people consist of the same elements that were once created in stars through nuclear fusion. We all belong to the human family; we are nourished by the same Earth, we are at home on the same Earth, we experience the same pain at the loss of freedom, health, or even one of our loved ones. The cry of despair, pain, or suffering sounds the same in every person, regardless of their skin color, political or religious affiliation, or ethnic background. As Dr. Daniele Ganser aptly says in his books: "We are all part of the human family."

Please do not let this email be met with a copy-paste response; embrace this idea in the spirit of humanity, anthropophilia, and simply Christian charity, which we will rightly hear a lot about in our churches this coming Easter weekend.

Let us not end as Austrians with mere rhetoric while war crimes are being committed in Gaza, as judged and condemned by the UN.

It is time that, especially in full awareness of the historical background of May 11, 1949, as promised decades ago at the UN level, we FINALLY help the people in Palestine to live their human rights. The people there want nothing more than us: freedom, peace, and for the young people there, education and a hopeful outlook on the development of their quality of life.

In conclusion, I wish for my Austrian government a commitment to a public stance for peace, for welfare, and above all, a strong plea for DIPLOMACY!

Helmut Schmidt once said: "Better to negotiate fruitlessly for 100 hours than to shoot for just one minute."

Kennedy said: "Our goal is not the victory of might, but the maintenance of rights – not peace at the expense of freedom, but both: peace and freedom here in our hemisphere and – as we hope – everywhere in the world. God willing, we will achieve this goal."

Let us not only hope that diplomacy is always the nobler good in a democracy than promoting warlike conflicts, and let us spread this valuable asset in the world. Let our people experience that you as our democratically voted government stand for these values, stand for our values, as we are one!

Please stand publicly as our federal government and representative for the protection of human life wherever it is trampled upon before our eyes by ideological, geopolitical-strategic, or even economic considerations.

For historical reasons, we Austrians must not look away again! As a democratic republic, we cannot afford that.

Best regards with gratitude,

Dr. Dietmar Hager

hdietmarr@gmail.com

Expand full comment